Why has violent crime declined in Britain?

The decline can be seen in multiple independent datasets. So what are the causes?

May 28, 2024

∙ Paid

Upgrade to paid to play voiceover

A realistic depiction of a British prison in the rain. The prison is a large, imposing stone building with barred windows and high walls, surrounded by tall, barbed-wire fences and watchtowers. Rain pours down heavily, creating puddles and a wet, reflective surface on the ground. The sky is dark and overcast, adding to the somber and dramatic atmosphere. The prison is set against a backdrop of rolling green hills and scattered trees, characteristic of the British countryside, but the rain blurs and darkens the scenery.

Written by Noah Carl.

On Twitter/X, it is common to see large right-wing accounts claiming that violent crime in Britain is out of control based on random videos of people fighting or getting stabbed. The caption to the video will say something like “Modern Britain” or “Sadiq Khan’s London”. Needless to say, this is not a compelling statistical argument. In fact, the best available data show that violent crime is much less frequent now than it was in the late 1990s.

Portable video cameras were rare ten years ago and were almost non-existent twenty years ago. The reason why you didn’t use to see videos of people fighting or getting stabbed is that such incidents weren’t filmed and then broadcast on social media (which also barely existed twenty years ago).

Why has violent crime declined in Britain?

The decline can be seen in multiple independent datasets. So what are the causes?

This post is for paid subscribers