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georgesdelatour's avatar

Imagine two countries: Syldavia and Borduria. In Syldavia, if your home lacks private security, it has a 1 in 3000 chance of being burgled; in Borduria it has a 1 in 3 chance. In Syldavia, if you wander the streets alone at night, you have a 1 in 3000 chance of being mugged; in Borduria you have a 1 in 3 chance. These statistics make behaviour very different in the two countries. In Syldavia, almost no one has private security for their home, and almost no one travels at night exclusively by registered taxi. In Borduria almost everyone does both. As a consequence, the actual crime rate is about the same in the two countries. In some years, Syldavia even has a higher crime rate than Borduria, because some Syldavians become too blasé about how wonderfully crime-free their society is.

What’s the point of my example? Even if the two countries have near-identical crime statistics, it’s obvious Borduria is the more fearful place to live. We’ve all heard the refrain that the fear of crime is worse than the likelihood of experiencing it. But this misses the point that, where people have a reasonable fear of crime, they modulate their behaviour to minimise risk. Syldavians learn to behave like Syldavians, and Bordurians like Bordurians. If a Bordurian behaves like a Syldavian in Borduria, he’ll likely be burgled and mugged. After that learning experience, he’ll change.

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Graham Cunningham's avatar

Detection rate? Something around 5% isn't it? Conviction rate for things like burglary? Somewhere approaching zero% isn't it? British justice - if defined as being on the side of the law-abiding and a fearsome deterrent to the criminally minded - is doing an appallingly bad job. It's difficult to imagine how it could be doing worse. https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/

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