Written by Noah Carl.
On 29 July 2024, reports emerged of a mass stabbing at a dance studio in Southport, England. Three girls were killed — aged six, seven and nine. The suspect was arrested at the scene, but because he was under 18 the police did not release his name or other details about him, fuelling speculation among the public. Many people assumed he was Muslim, and because the police did not immediately refute this, there were riots outside a local mosque, leading to the injury of more than 50 officers. As it turned out, the suspect was the British-born son of Rwandan immigrants. And his parents were evangelical Christians, not Muslims.
Last night, there was another mass stabbing in England — this time on a train in Cambridgeshire. 11 people were injured, nine critically. Once again, many people assumed the attacker was Muslim, but so far there is no evidence that he was. The police have detained one person, who is described as a “black British man”. And they have said there is “nothing to suggest” it was a “terrorist incident”, which presumably means the attacker is not linked to extremist groups and did not give any indication he had a religious or political motive.
You can understand why people assumed the attackers in both these cases were Muslim. Stabbings can be committed by almost anyone. But mass stabbings of random people are very frequently committed by Muslims — specifically Islamic terrorists. There have been cases in Britain, France, Germany and Austria.
Nonetheless, there is a tendency in Britain to overstate Muslim crime, and a corresponding tendency to understate black crime. As I’ve noted before, blacks have much higher crime rates than Muslims — yet crime-related social media posts are overwhelmingly about Muslims. This may be because people are misinformed about the numbers. It may also be because talking about possible religious causes of crime is more socially acceptable than talking about possible genetic causes.1
The chart below shows the racial distribution of homicide suspects alongside the racial distribution of the population aged 15–40. I used the population aged 15–40 as a benchmark, rather than the total population, to account for the fact that the groups have different age distributions — since we know that most violent crime is committed by young adults.
Whites, Asians and people identifying as “Other” are all underrepresented among homicide suspects. And people identifying as “Mixed” are neither under- nor overrepresented. Meanwhile, blacks are substantially overrepresented. They are four times more likely to be homicide suspects than you would expect from their share of the population aged 15–40. In terms of (crudely) age-adjusted rates, they are about five times more likely to be suspects than white people.2 This is obviously a large disparity, though it is lower than the figure of 8–10 times you find in the US.
While black people are substantially overrepresented among homicide suspects, it is worth keeping in mind that the vast majority of suspects (around 80%) are not black. So we shouldn’t exaggerate differences and pretend that, say, most murders have a black perpetrator.
As in the US, data from England and Wales show that black people are disproportionately involved in the crime of homicide, with a far higher rate than any other group. Exactly what explains this overrepresentation is still a matter of debate. We do know that poverty, IQ and family breakdown can only explain part.
This article has been updated to reflect the latest developments in the Cambridgeshire mass stabbing.
Noah Carl is an Editor of Aporia.
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The possibility of black crime having a partial genetic basis does not mean that “all black people are genetically predisposed to crime”. It simply means that genes linked to crime may have different frequencies in different races. We already know that such genes have different frequencies in men and women. Also, the possibility of black crime having a partial genetic basis does not mean that racism against black people is justified.
Interestingly, two major Islamic terrorist attacks in Britain were carried out by black converts to Islam, as opposed to Muslims of South Asian or Arab background: the 2013 murder of Lee Rigby, and the 2017 Westminster attack.
"it is worth keeping in mind that the vast majority of suspects (around 80%) are not black"
Perhaps black ethnicity isn't the relevant factor. Perhaps we should distinguish between two groups:
1) Populations where the state has long exercised a monopoly over the use of violence, i.e., most Europeans, almost all East Asians, most South Asians and certain Middle Eastern groups. In these populations, the state has gradually altered the composition of the gene pool through capital punishment, extrajudicial killings, suppression of rebellions, etc. As a result, the threshold for personal violence is relatively high, and there is strong inhibition against violent behaviour in most social contexts.
2) Populations where the state monopoly on violence is recent and has not influenced the gene pool. All adult males are expected to use violence to defend themselves and their loved ones, and such violence can be pre-emptive or even "for show" (to deter potential assailants).
How does the UK government define "white"? Are there statistics that differentiate between native-born white British and other national groups?
> Exactly what explains this overrepresentation [of Blacks] is still a matter of debate. We do know that poverty, IQ and family breakdown can only explain part.
Trying to pin it on intermediary “explanations” such as poverty or family breakdown is just politically correct obfuscation at this point. These are just intermediary steps in a causal chain that begins with genetics. Over hundreds of years, there hasn't been an environment where Blacks haven't been disproportionately criminal, promiscuous, and poor. That rules out environmental causes. That means the disparity is genetic. Where am I wrong? What are the viable environmental explanations left?