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Win the argument rather than win the election. A very basic point but one that hadn't occurred to me.

And don't annoy liberals by listing all the ways migrants are destroying our way of life, as I usually do. Instead point out that those we do already let in are only the smallest tip of an iceberg, an iceberg capable of sinking our puny western lifeboat.

Okay, now I know how to argue nicely with annoying do-gooders. Now I just need to corner one for long enough to make that argument.

But a great essay.

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This seems exactly right to me. I wish it wasn’t but I think this is spot on. It’s a project worth a ton of effort and thought. You’ve hinted at some good arguments here but way more needs to be done. Hopefully this is a clarion call for more efforts along these lines

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You can't "win the argument" with liberals. If they were open to noticing-reality-type reasoned argument then they would not be liberals (of the kind I think you mean). Being a 21st c. 'liberal' is not, at bottom, about weighing the evidence on immigration or any other real issue....it's about imagining yourself more sophisticated than the commen herd. A form of personal vanity really....unfortunately a very seductive one. https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/the-migrants

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How would you deal with the "ratchet effect" I mentioned?

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We're slightly at crossed purposes here Noah. I have no solutions to offer on this (or any other) of the baleful consequences of our civilisation's wholesale capture by the vanities of the Progressive Left. But my observation is true nevertheless.....you cannot "win the argument" with these kind of people. I always come back to Saul Bellow: "A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep"

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You're surely right about some of them. Perhaps not all.

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No perhaps not. It is just not in my nature to have much confidence in political solutions.

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In what way would your method differ from the current status quo?

Currently, immigrants show up at a rate fast enough to transform society over a generation or two, but slow enough that there is no immediate drastic effect, beyond the left gaining slight demographic advantages every four years.

If a leftist "does nothing" that is unlikely to accelerate drastically.

In order to lower that rate the leftist would have to "do something". That something would involve some kind of cruelty "turning away needy people".

Doesn't the leftist then just default to "do nothing." This requires the least effort and has the most payoff.

And indeed if you push an average leftist they won't say they are in favor of Open Borders or mass demographic change, but they also don't want to take any affirmative action against the status quo. Similar to how many would say they don't want to "defund the police", but they also don't want to police doing their job to much when its messy business.

I don't think this is ever going to change. People aren't going to do things they find repugnant to avert situations they see as mildly to their advantage. Nor is the threat of "the far right taking power" going to change anything. Easier to just ally with immigrants to fight the far right. That's what's actually working, isn't it. They don't even need electoral majorities to do that, especially in Europe it seems parliamentary games more then suffice.

Far right takes power in election then takes drastic action and brushes aside elite opinion is probably a sounder strategy. Granted, it would require some really unique talent and fortitude. But at least its clear what is to be done and how it would work.

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It's possible to ingrain your policies into the system in such a way that they outlast the next electoral defeat. Appointing friendly personnel into unelected positions is a good example of this. I do agree that elite infiltration is important but I am not convinced that it can be achieved by "winning arguments". Leftists think so differently from us that no argument put forth by a right winger on a topic like immigration will ever convince them. You won't be able to convince a leftist that mass migration should be opposed in order to help the migrants, because for the individual migrants, their migration from undeveloped nations to developed ones is obviously in their best interest. And besides, for a leftist helping out-groups is only one half of the equation; they also want to harm their in-group. Harming the in-group means destroying Western countries via mass migration. The destruction isn't some unforeseen consequence that can be pointed out to them - it's their literal goal!

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I think “elite human capital” is hopeless.

Look I’ve got two very close lifelong friends that are still masking and keeping their small children isolated. They were completely normal people. Successful and happy. They just went insane one day. Because the great NPC signal said so.

Let’s just win some elections and shove it down everyone’s throat in the most violent and un-reversible way possible.

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“… the point is to emphasize that mass immigration can’t be curtailed for any meaningful length of time until a sufficient number of liberals have been brought on board. “

The above completely ignores Dutton & Woodley’s concept of “spiteful mutants”. Your implicit assumption is that most “liberals” are just like us—folks who can be persuaded via rationale argument. That they will follow the path of action that provides them with the most benefit to themselves and their progeny.

This is a fact not in evidence. Heck, even the graph you depict regarding “empathy” can logically be interpreted as one depicting differences in “ethnocentrism”. To wit, the “liberals” as you call them have more association with others not of their race, so why would they ever consider closing the border to those (others) they more closely align with? They don/t and they won’t.

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right. "ideas" and "culture" are fake and cant persuade anyone, your political temperament is for the most part genetic and due to dysgenics, the number of genetic leftists is constantly rising. the only thing which would change all this would be the reintroduction of some kind of eugenic processes selecting for high iq, right-wing people

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Elect the right man – Orbán – and things will start falling into place.

In Hungary this was enough to keep us out of the Muslim and black migration that is destroying Europe. Because the key here is a nationally-minded and autonomous politician who resists globalist pressure. This requires very large and freely available financial resources. This is something that can only be achieved in an illiberal democracy and which looks like corruption from a distance. In Hungary, the media unvarnishedly portrays the harmful effects of migration - and because of the negative effects of 150y Turkish rule, which are still evident today, there is a healthy anti-Muslim sentiment among the electorate. The electorate is also much more aware than in the West. This is the aftermath of the Russian occupation in Eastern Europe: we do not believe in fine words, only facts, and there is a healthy nationalism because we are few and speak a strange language. Without this background, Orban could not stay in power...

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Orbán might be the exception that proves the rule.

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Enyoi the decline. There is no stop to mass migration, and replacement of the civilisation. The cultural suicidal drive is too strong. The question is why this is happening.

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I have the same feeling. The world really is upside down. Why do so many people prefer genocidal religious maniacs who hack people to death to intelligent, urbane Jews? Why do they want to flood our countries with people who are often less intelligent and more annoying than our home-grown people? Why do they think nose piercings, tattoos and pink hair look good? Why is their music so crumby? Why the attraction to allegedly 'marginalised' (i.e. whining, narcissistic) people? Why do they think Nish Kumar is funny but Gavin McInnes isn't?

These are genuine mysteries to me. Okay, I get that some people prefer Black Sabbath to Mozart or Piet Mondrian to Vermeer. That's fine. However, there is something truly perverse and inhuman about the ugly world some people want to create. I'm beginning to come round to Ed Dutton's idea of spiteful mutants.

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"The question is why this is happening."

The reason is that avaricious megalomaniacs are using societal disruption to weaken the fabric of our society. This will allow them to maintain control and even strengthen it. Those behind this are goddamn serious. The Deep State's control over this country must be destroyed.

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The solution is organized crime and gang violence btw

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>Taking in billions of people is obviously not feasible, as even the most sanctimonious liberals would be forced to concede.

I disagree with your premise that liberals would be forced to concede this point. You assume they're not retarded and have a grasp of large numbers.

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The only time they (barely) conceded anything is when red states started busing illegals to their doorsteps.

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that was more like "you're mean, don't do that"

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I tried to follow the argument at the end. I don't think it would be very effective with a liberal.

There are always going to be some people that show up at the border. Turning them away will be "cruel". And really the default, "do nothing and they get in", requires no affirmative action on ones part. It's a very easy stance to have.

The truth is we aren't going to have a billion people show up at the border one day. We are going to get what we already have, enough to slowly transform demographics over a generation or two. Every election cycle the demographics will get a little more favorable for the left. And if they do achieve a "singularity", then leftists will be in power forever. That's what they want!

This is only a "bad thing" if you think the immigrants themselves will cause the country to degrade in quality. But they don't believe it will. They aren't racist. And anyway, better to reign in hell then serve in heaven.

I think the real difference between the right and the left on this is that the rights timeline is "my grandkids and their grandkids" and the lefts timeline is "short to medium term". There is probably something here in the fact that people on the right are a lot more likely to have grandkids and people on the left are less likely.

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I agree with the problem stated in your article, but I believe it is more extensive. Using the United States as an example, it is not the right against the left. It is the vast majority against the Deep State. The electoral system is non-functional. Therefore, voting will not change anything. The Deep State must be destroyed. It does not matter who is 'elected' this fall.

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Who are the deep state in the US?

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"Who are the deep state in the US?"

It seems you do not believe there is a Deep State in the United States.

It is made up of unelected bureaucrats in the three-letter acronyms, rapacious megalomaniacs, all their attendant butt boys in the presidential administration, and Congress.

You don't believe Biden is 'running' the country, do you?

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Very interesting. Thank you Noah.

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I have a couple of question about footnote 5 (the analysis of pro-immigration sentiment). I don't see any link to the full analysis, so I don't know what exactly it contains.

1. How many of the immigrants are able to vote and how many are non-voting?

2. Does the pro-immigration sentiment also hold in descendants of immigrants (2nd, 3rd etc. generation of immigrants)?

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This video makes great arguments against mass immigration: [The Case Against Mass Immigration](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6nG7RloYf0).

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