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Peter Frost's avatar

Selective immigration tends to become unselective. First, the host population is lulled into thinking that immigration poses no real issues. So they see criticism of immigration as unjustified, and they say nothing when immigration is gradually increased and made less and less selective.

Second, selected immigrants will sponsor others in their family, who then sponsor others, and so on. The result is another regression to the mean. Immigrants become more and more typical of their home countries. Over the past ten years in particular, Canadians have begun to realize they had been previously exposed to a biased sample.

What will happen now? It depends on which Canada you're talking about. English Canadians have long had a culture of deference to authority. They may have doubts about the direction their country has taken, but they will stifle those doubts. That is how we have been conditioned, especially those who are old enough to occupy senior positions of authority.

French Canadians are a different story. They are a lot less deferential, especially toward Ottawa, and have been less influenced by the Woke culture that has seeped across our southern border. Quebec will hold its next election in 2026, and the Parti Quebecois is leading in the polls, largely because of its vocal opposition to mass immigration. An independence referendum will be held, and the majority will vote to leave Canada.

At that point, Canada will collapse like a house of cards. Nothing is left to hold the country together. Canadian nationalism has been in decline since the 1980s, and the last ten years have seen it take a rough beating, especially with the destruction of historical monuments, the erasure of Canadian identity, and Trudeau's declaration that Canada is now a post-national society.

It's sad to see this happen, and it couldn't happen to a nicer people ... but unfortunately that is part of the problem.

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Tom Stringham's avatar

I'm amazed--I could have written 90% of this (not as well). I have been saying that the US should try to get a customs union and free movement with Canada. Negotiating that would involve, basically, US control over immigration and trade for both countries. Canadians would get access to US labor markets and no barriers to trade in return.

I think you should have acknowledged Trudeau's recent cuts to immigration. They aren't enough to change the picture in the long run, but they will mean zero or negative growth for a couple of years and are already pushing down rents substantially in Canadian cities. This may be enough, if conditions keep improving, to prevent the Conservatives winning a majority at the next election.

I also think you can't gloss over Quebec when it comes to the Canadian Question (so to speak). They have been partially insulated from immigration by being allowed to set their own numbers, and by speaking French rather than English. But they are still poorer than Ontario and the West. You said that even adequate government would make Canada the richest country in the world, but I think that's overstating it, mainly because Quebec exists. Quebec is also much of the reason for Canada's more fragmented national identity, and also much of the reason that the country is poorly governed--they simply don't care if the rest of the country is crumbling if they are getting their federal payments.

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