Great post. You must have a lot of patience to work all that out from such disjointed statistics.
Assuming the figures are more or less right, a sensible government would stop immigration from those top ten countries tomorrow. But, of course, our governments haven't been sensible for some years.
Interesting analysis. However i don't think this statement is true "The ideal source of population data is the 2021 census, given that it represents a full population sample." - I know plenty of people who didn't fill it in. Look at each time there is some incident in an illegal HMO in Tower Hamlets and they find 14 people living in a 2 bed flat. Large percentage of illegal sublets also. None of those people will have done it. I recon for the most relevant populations their care for the legal consequences of failing to file the census is limited.
Nationality is no valid parameter at all. Ethnocultural background would be the correct parameter. But this is a tabooed topic. Better don´t think about it.
How many non-british ethnics are counted as british nationals? Plenty of black "british" that commit crime. Combine this with failure to catch a large amount of criminals, and even under reporting, and I think that this is not being honest at all. I think it's demonstrable just by looking at newspapers about heinous crimes and police ineffectiveness and you can intuit the rest
Vietnamese in the usa also sufferend from high crime rate when they arrive in the 80, compare to the modern immigrants who are more selective and highly educated, while in europe they dont recive much of the high quality immigrants, instead most of the vietnamese are descendants of the first wave who are less elite
“The data suggest that non-British nationals commit crime at slightly higher rates than British nationals, and that specific nationalities commit crime at much higher rates.”
The stat’s leave much to be desired. Obviously one can decide not to admit more of these types base upon nationality—assuming you allowed them in via some legal process in the first place. If not, why are they still around rather than deported? My next approach would be to study these types and see what they have in common and use such as filtering criteria for all new applications for British Citizenship. None of these suggestions will be pursued of course.
Very interesting. However, it seems that the essay stops before exploring the most intriguing point. In particular, you observed that "none of the nationalities with a high incarceration rate has a large population, while none of the nationalities with a large population has a high incarceration rate". Very interesting. But surprising. Why would it be so?
For instance, I know The Gambia as a country of very low crime rate. To my knowledge, the mentality in the Gambia is that theft and crime brings shame. In the statistics you provide, I see instead that the Gambians in the UK have high incarceration rate. A hypothesis: small and fragmented expat community of the Gambians provides weak support to the individuals who therefore statistically more often fall into grey zone? As opposed to immigrants from other countries, where expat community is bigger (supportive)?
I wonder if your article could lead to some hypotheses that in turn could lead to more effective policies to prevent crime in these particular groups of immigrants.
or yet another hypothesis, simpler... the estimates of population are very vague. The number of 5,000 Gambians - where does it come from? Could it be that those numbers are simply wrong, and in fact we have many more Gambians in the UK. So in other words, the higher incarceration rate for the national groups that have smaller community simply means higher error in estimating the true size of those community (while the numbers for bigger communities would be closer to truth)?
I am not going to comment on how accurate is the data, good points were made already in the comments.
I have one question. The premise is that foreign nationals commit crime in SLIGHTLY higher percentage. Another comment was that we should stop them coming in. Not one person said about the BRITISH that commit the crimes in SLIGHTLY lower percentage. By the logic displayed in the previous comments we should also throw them out of the country because they committed a crime, take their residence/citizenship away 😅. Flawed logic.
I will introduce another question. Anyone compared the LEVEL of their criminality. What is the percentage of Higher Crime (let's say that carry at least 3 years) the British commit and what is the percentage is for the foreign nationals?
Great post. You must have a lot of patience to work all that out from such disjointed statistics.
Assuming the figures are more or less right, a sensible government would stop immigration from those top ten countries tomorrow. But, of course, our governments haven't been sensible for some years.
"Assuming the figures are more or less right, a sensible government would stop immigration from those top ten countries tomorrow."
An intelligent government would limit immigration to a very select few, with merit as the guidance.
Interesting analysis. However i don't think this statement is true "The ideal source of population data is the 2021 census, given that it represents a full population sample." - I know plenty of people who didn't fill it in. Look at each time there is some incident in an illegal HMO in Tower Hamlets and they find 14 people living in a 2 bed flat. Large percentage of illegal sublets also. None of those people will have done it. I recon for the most relevant populations their care for the legal consequences of failing to file the census is limited.
Nationality is no valid parameter at all. Ethnocultural background would be the correct parameter. But this is a tabooed topic. Better don´t think about it.
How many non-british ethnics are counted as british nationals? Plenty of black "british" that commit crime. Combine this with failure to catch a large amount of criminals, and even under reporting, and I think that this is not being honest at all. I think it's demonstrable just by looking at newspapers about heinous crimes and police ineffectiveness and you can intuit the rest
Vietnam surprises me. In the US they are very law-abiding.
Vietnamese in the usa also sufferend from high crime rate when they arrive in the 80, compare to the modern immigrants who are more selective and highly educated, while in europe they dont recive much of the high quality immigrants, instead most of the vietnamese are descendants of the first wave who are less elite
Can we distinguish between Chinese Vietnamese (the boat people) and ethnic Vietnamese immigrants?
“The data suggest that non-British nationals commit crime at slightly higher rates than British nationals, and that specific nationalities commit crime at much higher rates.”
The stat’s leave much to be desired. Obviously one can decide not to admit more of these types base upon nationality—assuming you allowed them in via some legal process in the first place. If not, why are they still around rather than deported? My next approach would be to study these types and see what they have in common and use such as filtering criteria for all new applications for British Citizenship. None of these suggestions will be pursued of course.
To what extent is the imprisoned British nationality a more diverse group than those who hold foreign passports or were born abroad?
Very interesting. However, it seems that the essay stops before exploring the most intriguing point. In particular, you observed that "none of the nationalities with a high incarceration rate has a large population, while none of the nationalities with a large population has a high incarceration rate". Very interesting. But surprising. Why would it be so?
For instance, I know The Gambia as a country of very low crime rate. To my knowledge, the mentality in the Gambia is that theft and crime brings shame. In the statistics you provide, I see instead that the Gambians in the UK have high incarceration rate. A hypothesis: small and fragmented expat community of the Gambians provides weak support to the individuals who therefore statistically more often fall into grey zone? As opposed to immigrants from other countries, where expat community is bigger (supportive)?
I wonder if your article could lead to some hypotheses that in turn could lead to more effective policies to prevent crime in these particular groups of immigrants.
or yet another hypothesis, simpler... the estimates of population are very vague. The number of 5,000 Gambians - where does it come from? Could it be that those numbers are simply wrong, and in fact we have many more Gambians in the UK. So in other words, the higher incarceration rate for the national groups that have smaller community simply means higher error in estimating the true size of those community (while the numbers for bigger communities would be closer to truth)?
I am not going to comment on how accurate is the data, good points were made already in the comments.
I have one question. The premise is that foreign nationals commit crime in SLIGHTLY higher percentage. Another comment was that we should stop them coming in. Not one person said about the BRITISH that commit the crimes in SLIGHTLY lower percentage. By the logic displayed in the previous comments we should also throw them out of the country because they committed a crime, take their residence/citizenship away 😅. Flawed logic.
I will introduce another question. Anyone compared the LEVEL of their criminality. What is the percentage of Higher Crime (let's say that carry at least 3 years) the British commit and what is the percentage is for the foreign nationals?
Makes you think 🤔
Thanks for the informative article. Now for a solution.