Written by Noah Carl.
As of 2024, not a single Western country has a fertility rate above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Most are below 1.5. Italy, Spain, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia are below 1.2. If Western countries’ fertility rates do not increase, the native populations will rapidly diminish in size. This will lead to major problems, such as an inability to fund pensions and healthcare for the elderly.
In a recent article, Emil Kirkegaard summarised the evidence that most Westerners would like to have more children. As he notes, the vast majority of people give their ideal family size as two children. And this is true regardless of their country’s level of fertility. For example, in one of the studies Kirkegaard cites (shown below), the ideal family size among the Spanish is marginally higher than the ideal family size among the French. Basically, almost everyone says they want two children in surveys.
Does this mean that most Westerners would be better off having more? Not necessarily.1
