This must have been a paid propaganda ad by some Western nutcase. If this was true why the trade war??? This article is proof of the opposite and China's growing tech prowess!
I think the environmental damage of fracking technology has been exaggerated (relative to conventional drilling) and the natural gas biproducts of fracking have actually been important to the US meeting Kyoto Protocol targets. (Gas releases about half as much CO2 compared to oil or coal.)
In last century's energy. China's renewable energy is the future. Given the cuts in R&D in our country, we will be stuck in the past as the world moves into the future.
Renewables will probably never be cost-competitive with coal or nuclear in the northern hemisphere, unless battery tech gets at least an order of magnitude cheaper (and even then, land-use is a significant constraint/tradeoff.)
Doesn't solve any of the other problems relating to China cannibalising their social fabric and self-sufficiency for the sake of short-term GDP, though.
China has cheaper energy cost than the vast majority of the West. Its the secret to China's industrial might. They have dark factories where no human workers are on the factory floor. Its why economists under estimate China's economy using satellite imagery. The number of energy projects are a better measure of China's economy because industries use about 60% of China's energy.
China's green energy production is almost as much as all the US's production. China leads in nuclear energy. China just built the first working Thorium nuclear generator. China is putting its surpluses into all green energy research. It’s looking into putting solar panels in orbit, hydrogen, cheaper battery technology, etc. The future of energy is in China's hand just like the auto industry now. China is powering the world with green energy.
As for social fabric, we need to look in the mirror in the West. Industries are uncompetitive. Human capital are following behind. Infrastructures are old and from the last century. Food and energy prices are higher than China. The trade war is proof of this.
Interesting assessment. But it would be more believable with links to sources. I take all opinions on China with a large grain of salt without sources.
The list of those who feature his work is telling. All are neocons who support U.S. hegemony, and China is the number one threat to world hegemony. He is reminiscent of Gordon Chang.
Actions speak louder than words. The trade war by Trump is reality. This propaganda is proof of the flailing in the West. If this article was true there would be no trade war.
I think it's "going" towards the largest market crash in human history if the size of the Chinese real estate bubble is to be believed, combined with the largest demographic crash in human history if Chinese TFR is to be believed, and possibly the most catastrophic military defeat in human history if a country that imports 80% of its oil and 35% of its calories wanting to invade Taiwan is to be believed.
If they manage to keep the tech boom going under those conditions I'll be very impressed, but I also wouldn't count on it.
> "The real estate bubble will certainly hurt people who own real estate"
That's most of the Chinese population (it's essentially become their default savings mechanism), not to mention a vast array of other companies that invested in real estate firms like Evergrande. I think you're underestimating the likely scale of ripple effects here- I fully expect the collapse of their housing bubble to cause a *global* economic recession, without even thinking about the effects within China.
> "It will be a century before they have any lack of young workers"
The absolute number of old-age pensioners that need support is going to be larger than their workforce pretty soon, so these aren't just free labour any more, unless the elderly start rotting in gutters. Which I guess could happen, but that's not exactly energising to national morale.
> "By 2050, absolute numbers of young Chinese will be around 100 million"
That's not addressing my point at all, which is that these young Chinese are going be rather preoccupied with supporting their elderly parents/grandparents, assuming nothing else goes wrong (which it almost certainly will.)
It's true that this is a global problem, and I agree that western governments have only been fractionally less irresponsible than the CCP in dealing with the issue, but most western countries at least got rich before they got old, so I expect China's demographic crash will be much more painful.
> "Roughly 70 to 80 percent of Chinese household net worth is nominally located in real estate. But this is not circulating capital, nor is it productive investment"
How is this refuting my basic argument? By your own description, this is an atom bomb at the heart of the Chinese economy.
This article omits comparison of china in 2024-2025. Comparing 2003 china is very different even 2014 china.
When I need information about Chinese science and technology, my first thought is, "What do Falun Gong YouTube influencers have to say about it?"
China leads the world in all the sciences and most technologies. 17 of the top 20 research institutes are Chinese, 80% of AI patents are Chinese....
What happened to Aporia, and what explains its rapid decline in editorial standards?
This must have been a paid propaganda ad by some Western nutcase. If this was true why the trade war??? This article is proof of the opposite and China's growing tech prowess!
Glossing over the rapid decline of the United States and its European vassals on all levels other than IT.
Only via fracking which is unsustainable over time.
All fossil fuel use is "unsustainable" over time, so I don't know why you'd bring this up as a particular drawback to shale fracking.
Well, dude, fracking is even more unsustainable over time. It’s a very temporary solution and causes more environmental damage.
I think the environmental damage of fracking technology has been exaggerated (relative to conventional drilling) and the natural gas biproducts of fracking have actually been important to the US meeting Kyoto Protocol targets. (Gas releases about half as much CO2 compared to oil or coal.)
https://insights.globalspec.com/article/17062/study-differences-in-the-environmental-toll-of-fracking-versus-conventional-drilling-are-negligible
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032124007949
US is a leader in energy, as well.
In last century's energy. China's renewable energy is the future. Given the cuts in R&D in our country, we will be stuck in the past as the world moves into the future.
Renewables will probably never be cost-competitive with coal or nuclear in the northern hemisphere, unless battery tech gets at least an order of magnitude cheaper (and even then, land-use is a significant constraint/tradeoff.)
To be fair, China is scaling up nuclear as well, and seems to be ahead of the adoption curve- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WKQsr9v2C0
Doesn't solve any of the other problems relating to China cannibalising their social fabric and self-sufficiency for the sake of short-term GDP, though.
China has cheaper energy cost than the vast majority of the West. Its the secret to China's industrial might. They have dark factories where no human workers are on the factory floor. Its why economists under estimate China's economy using satellite imagery. The number of energy projects are a better measure of China's economy because industries use about 60% of China's energy.
China's green energy production is almost as much as all the US's production. China leads in nuclear energy. China just built the first working Thorium nuclear generator. China is putting its surpluses into all green energy research. It’s looking into putting solar panels in orbit, hydrogen, cheaper battery technology, etc. The future of energy is in China's hand just like the auto industry now. China is powering the world with green energy.
As for social fabric, we need to look in the mirror in the West. Industries are uncompetitive. Human capital are following behind. Infrastructures are old and from the last century. Food and energy prices are higher than China. The trade war is proof of this.
Are you a bot?
Typical response to facts…
"US is a leader in energy, as well."
By what measure?
Interesting assessment. But it would be more believable with links to sources. I take all opinions on China with a large grain of salt without sources.
The article links to several academic papers.
—NC
The list of those who feature his work is telling. All are neocons who support U.S. hegemony, and China is the number one threat to world hegemony. He is reminiscent of Gordon Chang.
That isn't true—Mises Institute is libertarian and Chronicles is paleocon.
—NC
"That isn't true—Mises Institute is libertarian and Chronicles is paleocon."
Label them as you wish, the point is that it reeks of U.S. propaganda.
I take it you agree with the assertions made in the article?
I don't necessarily agree with the overall argument, but it makes some valid points.
—NC
"I don't necessarily agree with the overall argument, but it makes some valid points."
Thanks for your reply.
Actions speak louder than words. The trade war by Trump is reality. This propaganda is proof of the flailing in the West. If this article was true there would be no trade war.
I think it's "going" towards the largest market crash in human history if the size of the Chinese real estate bubble is to be believed, combined with the largest demographic crash in human history if Chinese TFR is to be believed, and possibly the most catastrophic military defeat in human history if a country that imports 80% of its oil and 35% of its calories wanting to invade Taiwan is to be believed.
If they manage to keep the tech boom going under those conditions I'll be very impressed, but I also wouldn't count on it.
> "The real estate bubble will certainly hurt people who own real estate"
That's most of the Chinese population (it's essentially become their default savings mechanism), not to mention a vast array of other companies that invested in real estate firms like Evergrande. I think you're underestimating the likely scale of ripple effects here- I fully expect the collapse of their housing bubble to cause a *global* economic recession, without even thinking about the effects within China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3hcmihlSg4
> "It will be a century before they have any lack of young workers"
The absolute number of old-age pensioners that need support is going to be larger than their workforce pretty soon, so these aren't just free labour any more, unless the elderly start rotting in gutters. Which I guess could happen, but that's not exactly energising to national morale.
> "By 2050, absolute numbers of young Chinese will be around 100 million"
That's not addressing my point at all, which is that these young Chinese are going be rather preoccupied with supporting their elderly parents/grandparents, assuming nothing else goes wrong (which it almost certainly will.)
It's true that this is a global problem, and I agree that western governments have only been fractionally less irresponsible than the CCP in dealing with the issue, but most western countries at least got rich before they got old, so I expect China's demographic crash will be much more painful.
> "Roughly 70 to 80 percent of Chinese household net worth is nominally located in real estate. But this is not circulating capital, nor is it productive investment"
How is this refuting my basic argument? By your own description, this is an atom bomb at the heart of the Chinese economy.