Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Sean Traven's avatar

China leads in some scientific fields—materials science, chemistry, engineering. The U.S. remains dominant in biomedical research, space science, and theoretical physics. Bibliometric data show China leading in article volume, but not in citation impact or Nobel-level originality across the board. China also leads in some applied tech sectors: 5G infrastructure, surveillance systems, high-speed rail, drone manufacturing, solar panel production, and aspects of EV battery manufacturing.

So where do you think this is going? The country was nowhere just 20 years ago. It led in nothing. Now? materials science, chemistry, engineering, 5G, high speed rail, drones solar panels, EV batteries...Can someone tell me the trend?

Expand full comment
Sean Traven's avatar

Citing 2003 data to support a 2025 claim is like evaluating a surgeon’s current skill based on his residency. The 86% figure is not wrong, but it’s outdated by more than two decades. It was true in the early WTO-entry era, when China’s role was overwhelmingly as assembler. But the landscape has shifted.

By the mid-2010s, the domestic share of high-tech exports had increased significantly. Estimates vary, but by 2016, Chinese-owned firms were reportedly responsible for over 40% of high-tech exports. Huawei, DJI, BOE, and others emerged not just as assemblers, but as integrated developers and IP holders—especially in telecom, optics, and consumer electronics.

So Matthews is framing a real phenomenon with obsolete numbers. The original point—that a large portion of China’s high-tech exports still rely on foreign-controlled inputs—remains partially true. But the 2003 figure is a relic, and using it without updating the trend line undermines the argument’s credibility. If China’s domestic innovation remains limited, it should be shown in current form, not by snapshotting the global supply chain from two decades back.

Expand full comment
34 more comments...

No posts