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Steven C.'s avatar

This article reminds me of this part of the Monty Python movie "The Life of Brian": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9foi342LXQE

Stephen Brien's avatar

I think the Java case is the most interesting in the article — extraction at sufficient scale forced the Dutch to solve real organisational problems, and those solutions outlasted the regime. Fair point, well made.

But there's a complication to consider as well. The infrastructure and the incentive structure came as a package. What persisted in post-independence Indonesia wasn't just sugar factories and irrigation channels — it was also an unwritten settlement about which activities attracted capable people, how officials expected each other to behave, and who the economy was implicitly organised to serve. Unpicking the productive legacy from that inherited pattern proved considerably harder than the physical assets alone would suggest.

On Thailand versus Vietnam — that's probably the sharpest current test case, and it does real damage to simple colonial-origins stories. Vietnam was colonised, bombed back to subsistence, and then run by a communist government for decades. Thailand avoided all of that. And yet we see quite different trajectories.

What it suggests is that what colonial rule did or didn't do directly matters less than what governments selected (and were politically able) to prioritise afterwards — specifically, whether they invested seriously in building capable institutions, professional bureaucracies, and export discipline, or whether they didn't. Thailand had the political space and never quite used it consistently. Vietnam, against most predictions, did.

If colonial origins really do drive long-run outcomes in the way AJR claim, the Thailand-Vietnam comparison has no good answer. Same region, radically different histories — and the country that was colonised, bombed flat, and then collectivised is now the one pulling ahead. The variation that matters seems to operate somewhere else.

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